Diablo Valley Market Report: March 2026

Data through February 2026
Markets included: Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Rossmoor, and Pleasant Hill.

This is an overall assessment of the Diablo Valley market. It is not a city-by-city statistical breakdown. The purpose of this report is to interpret what the broader market is doing right now, where the pressure points are, and what that means for sellers heading into spring.

The Market Is Strengthening Faster Than It First Appears

The March Diablo Valley report points to a market that is gaining momentum. Demand is rising faster than supply. That imbalance is beginning to show up where it matters most: buyer competition, speed of sale, and negotiating leverage.

This is the kind of market that can be easy to misread. Not every headline metric looks explosive. But underneath the surface, the structure is tightening. Buyers are becoming more aggressive. Inventory is still too limited to create real relief. That is what is setting up the spring market.

Competition Has Picked Up

In February, 52% of Diablo Valley homes sold above asking price, the highest level seen in the past 12 months. The average home sold at roughly 101% of list price. Homes also sold faster than they did in January and faster than they did at the same time last year. Listings going into contract increased as well.

That matters because it confirms that this is not a passive market. Buyers are engaging. The right homes are creating urgency. The spring market is not just arriving on the calendar. It is beginning to show up in the numbers.

Supply Is Rising, but It Is Still Tight

Some will look at rising inventory and assume the market is loosening. That is not the best read.

New listings were up 7.5% year over year, and active and coming-soon listings were up 10.5% year over year as of March 1. On paper, that sounds like more breathing room. In practice, demand is still absorbing supply quickly enough that the broader market remains competitive, especially for houses.

The clearest signal is months supply of inventory. For both 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom houses, the Diablo Valley stands at just 1.4 months of inventory. That is a very constrained market. Inventory may be improving, but it is improving from a depleted baseline.

Pricing Requires More Thought Than a Single Headline

The three-month rolling median house price across the Diablo Valley was down about 3% year over year through February. At the same time, the three-month rolling median dollar per square foot was up about 1% year over year.

Those two figures should not be read as a contradiction. Median price can move around based on seasonality, property size, and the mix of homes that happened to sell. The better takeaway is that broad price headlines can look softer even while underlying demand remains firm.

That is where many sellers get into trouble. They see one softer metric and assume the market is weaker than it is. Or they hear that spring is heating up and assume momentum alone will do the work. Neither is a strategy. This market still requires precision.

Regional Benchmarks Help, but They Do Not Price a Home

The report provides useful regional benchmarks for common home profiles.

For 3-bedroom, 2-bath homes in the 1,400 to 1,750 square foot range, the regional median price was about $1.3 million, with a median of $766 per square foot. For 4-bedroom, 3-bath homes in the 2,000 to 2,300 square foot range, the regional median price was about $1.65 million, with a median of $813 per square foot.

These are helpful as broad reference points. They are not a pricing formula.

A serious value analysis still depends on location, lot utility, floor plan, condition, upgrades, privacy, school alignment, and how the home is likely to perform once it actually hits the market. The regional data gives context. It does not replace a real demand read.

What Our February Year Over Year Single Family Home Report for Danville Reinforces

This broader Diablo Valley report also aligns with what our February year over year single family home report for Danville showed. The local market was not weak. It was selective.

Well-positioned homes were still moving quickly, while homes that missed on pricing or presentation faced more resistance. That is an important distinction, because it supports the same conclusion seen in the regional numbers. The market is offering opportunity, but it is not distributing that opportunity evenly.

That is exactly why median and average time-on-market figures can tell very different stories. In a market like this, strong homes get absorbed quickly while overpriced or less compelling homes sit, negotiate, and lose leverage. The gap between a well-executed launch and an average one can widen very quickly.

The Wildcard Is Macro Volatility

The report notes that the 30-year conforming rate was 6.0% on March 5 and that the daily average rate had risen to 6.14% by March 6. It also identifies geopolitical disruption as the key wildcard for inflation, mortgage rates, financial markets, and buyer confidence this spring.

That matters in the Diablo Valley because affluent buyers play an outsized role in regional demand and appreciation. If volatility remains contained, the market is set up for an active spring. If rates rise materially or confidence weakens, urgency can soften faster than people expect.

The Real Read

The Diablo Valley market is not soft. It is strengthening. But it is strengthening in a way that rewards strategy, not assumptions.

Demand is improving faster than supply. More homes are selling above asking. Homes are selling faster. Inventory is rising, but not enough to materially loosen the market. These are the conditions that create real opportunity for sellers, but only when preparation, pricing, and timing are aligned with the actual market in front of them.

That is the real takeaway from the March 2026 Diablo Valley report. This is a market with real momentum heading into spring. It is also a market where execution matters.

Source Note

This page is an overall assessment of the Diablo Valley market based on the Compass March 2026 Diablo Valley report. Markets included in the report are Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville, Diablo, San Ramon, Walnut Creek, Rossmoor, and Pleasant Hill. It also incorporates broader market context and local perspective from our February year over year single family home report for Danville.